As 2025 wraps up, it’s worth taking stock of what happened in our industry this year. Some of what I predicted came true. Some didn’t. And there were a few surprises.

Here’s my honest assessment of the year.

The Market Picture

The commercial LED retrofit market in Australia continued to mature. We’re past the explosive growth phase where everyone with a metal halide highbay was rushing to upgrade. Now we’re in the optimisation phase.

What I saw:

• Fewer “easy wins” (the obvious retrofits are mostly done)
• More sophisticated projects (controls, integration, specialised applications)
• Increased focus on second-generation upgrades (replacing early LEDs with better LEDs)
• Growing importance of data and analytics in lighting systems

The days of selling LED retrofits on energy savings alone are fading. Clients want more—better quality, smarter systems, verified performance.

Rebate Program Updates

The state energy efficiency schemes continued operating, which itself is good news. There was always speculation that these programs might be wound back.

NSW ESS: Certificate prices fluctuated but remained viable for most projects. Processing times improved somewhat from the delays we saw in 2024.

Victoria VEET: Solid performance throughout the year. The scheme remains well-administered and reliable.

SA REES: Continued serving the South Australian market, though with less scale than the larger state schemes.

Queensland: Still no equivalent scheme. Queensland commercial clients continued paying more for retrofits than their southern counterparts.

For those of us working across state borders, the regulatory patchwork remains frustrating. But it’s the reality we work with.

Product Trends

Efficacy improvements: LED efficacy continued creeping upward. Products achieving 150+ lumens per watt are now available across most categories. The practical significance is diminishing though—going from 120 to 150 lm/W doesn’t transform project economics the way going from 80 to 120 did.

Integrated sensors: More fittings come with optional or built-in occupancy and daylight sensors. This simplifies installation and reduces system cost.

Tunable white: Colour-tunable fittings moved from novelty to mainstream availability. Adoption is still limited to specific applications (healthcare, premium offices), but the products are there.

Linear LED: The trend toward linear/strip lighting in commercial interiors continued. Architects love the clean lines. It creates interesting design possibilities.

Controls Evolution

DALI-2 is now firmly established as the standard for commercial lighting control in Australia. Manufacturers have caught up, and most commercial-grade LED fittings are DALI-compatible.

Bluetooth mesh controls (Casambi and competitors) gained ground in the retrofit market, where their wireless nature avoids expensive control wiring.

The proprietary platforms (Philips Interact, Signify systems, etc.) continue carving out niches in specific applications. They offer integration and analytics that open systems don’t match, but the lock-in concerns remain.

What I didn’t see much of: meaningful integration between lighting and other building systems. We talk about smart buildings, but in practice, most lighting systems still operate as silos.

Regulatory Developments

NCC 2025: The updated National Construction Code came into effect with strengthened energy efficiency requirements. Lighting power density limits tightened for new buildings. LED is now essentially mandatory for new construction—not by name, but by performance requirement.

Standards updates: Various AS/NZS standards were updated during the year. Nothing revolutionary, but incremental improvements to keep pace with technology.

Product compliance: ACMA and state regulators continued their periodic crackdowns on non-compliant LED products entering the market. If you’re still buying no-name imports without proper certification, you’re taking increasing risk.

What Surprised Me

Resilience of metal halide: I expected the last metal halide installations to be gone by now. But some facilities are still running them—usually where decision-making is slow or capital is constrained. The retrofit opportunity isn’t finished.

Slow uptake of human-centric lighting: Despite the research and the product availability, human-centric (circadian) lighting remained niche. Cost is part of it, but I think the main issue is uncertainty about value. Clients aren’t convinced the investment pays off.

Contractor capability gaps: This surprised me negatively. Some electrical contractors are still struggling with modern LED and controls technology. Training and capability development haven’t kept pace with product evolution.

Lessons Reinforced

Quality still matters: Cheap LED products continue causing problems. Failed drivers, colour shift, premature degradation. The lesson keeps repeating: buy quality.

Controls need commissioning: Installed-and-forgotten controls don’t deliver. Proper commissioning, adjustment, and ongoing management make the difference.

Documentation is undervalued: Projects with poor documentation struggle to claim full rebates, honour warranties, and troubleshoot problems. Good record-keeping pays for itself.

Communication bridges gaps: The best project outcomes came from clients who communicated clearly about their needs, contractors who asked questions, and suppliers who provided honest guidance.

Looking Forward

What am I watching for 2026?

Continued controls adoption: Occupancy sensing and daylight dimming will become standard rather than optional in commercial projects.

Circular economy pressure: Questions about LED end-of-life, recyclability, and embodied carbon will grow. The industry isn’t well prepared for this.

DC distribution experimentation: More new buildings will trial DC power distribution for lighting and other loads. It makes technical sense, but the ecosystem isn’t there yet.

Grid interaction: As electricity markets evolve, lighting systems that can respond to grid signals (demand response, frequency control) may become valuable.

AI in lighting: Machine learning for predictive maintenance, optimised scheduling, and energy management will appear in more sophisticated systems. This is where building automation specialists and AI consultants intersect with our industry.

Personal Reflections

I’ve been in commercial lighting for 18 years now. The industry has never been more interesting technically. The products are better, the systems are smarter, and the environmental imperative is clearer.

But I worry that we’re losing some craft knowledge. Young electricians who’ve only ever installed LEDs don’t fully understand the technology they’re working with. The abstraction is convenient but creates gaps.

I also see an industry that’s sometimes too focused on novelty over fundamentals. A well-designed, properly commissioned, quality LED installation with basic controls beats a poorly executed “smart” system every time.

The basics matter. They always have.

The Year Ahead

2026 will bring new challenges and opportunities. Rebate programs may evolve. Products will improve marginally. The market will continue maturing.

For those of us in commercial lighting, the work remains meaningful. We’re helping facilities operate more efficiently, providing better environments for people who work in them, and contributing to broader sustainability goals.

Not a bad way to spend a career.

See you next year.